Gang,
The sun remains very quiet. As a result, band conditions have been as
well. Solar flux hits a high and a low value about every 28-days as a
function of the sun's rotation. We are just now coming out of the solar
flux minimum, so the next two weeks will see higher values. The past
3-4 cycles have been kind of "mushy," hitting 150's or below on the
minimum and barely 200 for the peak solar flux. But this last minimum
floated around 165-170 for days. Now it's going back up. This *might*
indicate this solar rotation could see solar fluxes well above 200 for
excellent conditions on 17M-10M.
For a graphical representation of the past two solar flux rotations,
see:
www.dxlc.com/solar
FOR THIS WEEKEND ... all of the bands should be in pretty good shape.
Solar flux will be in the 170's this weekend to support good DX on
30M to 10M, and even better by next weekend. Who knows where we are in
the current solar cycle, but the next two weeks is definitely worth
getting on the air for some good 10M work.
40M will likewise be exceptional for both DX and fairly quiet conditions
due to our geomagnetic field being exceptionally quiet for about 2 weeks.
A indices have been single digits for 2 weeks.
So get on the air this weekend, 20M and above during the day light hours,
and 20M and below at night. 15M should remain open well after sundown.
Checkout your blocking dynamic range and current draws with some REAL
signals! And if the California utilities trip off-line this weekend,
40M will be even quietter. Do that 30M propagation study thing. Have so
many QSO's, you'll loose count (our Florida QRP friends will be glad to
help you count them ... again and again and ....). [sorry]. I plan on
some quality airtime myself this weekend.
Have a nice weekend everyone, whatever you decide to do.
72, Paul NA5N
-------------
> Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
> SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2001
> IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
> to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only three isolated C-class
> events occurred during the period.
C-class are fairly small flares, seldom causing any radio problems
on Earth.
> IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
> with isolated M-class events possible.
M-class are the larger (Medium) flares that can cause disturbances.
They are being forecasted, only because of several active regions that
could develop, but so far they're pretty benign.
> IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
> The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with a single
> mid-latitude active period occurring at 12/0300-0600 UTC.
Due to a slight increase in the solar wind, pretty typical of the
Earth crossing a small coronal hole stream. No biggie.
> IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
> expected to be quiet to active.
An active period or two, only if we encounter more effects of a
coronal hole. But this is not storm conditions, just a slight
elevation of noise on the lower bands, and even there, only while our
side of the earth is facing the sun (i.e., daylight hours). Evening
hours will return to QUIET conditions.
> IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
> Observed 12 Jan 178 <------- friday's solar flux
> Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 175/180/185 <--- sat, sun and monday
> V. Geomagnetic A Indices
> Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 004/005
> Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 010/010
> Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 012/012-010/012-005/005
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