>Kent, what is best guess for Saturday conditions when I go up to KL7Y's
>QTH? I
>can't seem to interpret these things very well.
Oh dear, my biggest fear...a propagation question from the auroral region!
:-( As you well know, you're in the worst possible place (tongue in
cheek).
A bunch of warnings have come in overnight, some in more of an english
format! A quick summery: the sun threw off a chunk of itself, called a
coronal mass ejection. this was observed by some satellite way out there,
and they figure it takes around 3 days to get to us. When it hits the
earth, it pushes the earth's magnetic field in a little...kind of like
pushing on a balloon. This roils up the ionosphere, and can do a whole
buch of things, good or bad. Auroral activity will increase. They don't
have the timing or trajectory precisely known, so the exact timing isn't
known...we'll know after the fact!
Since the paths you'll be trying to work will be to the US it won't be as
bad as polar path propagation. And, maybe it will be Very Good during the
start of the storm, like we saw a month ago, with propagation around the
world. Some of the guys here in Arizona were hearing their 1 watt cw
delayed about 150 mS...round the world propagation!
excerpts follow:
------
This disturbance is not expected to be particularly intense, although
periods of minor to major geomagnetic storming are a distinct possibility,
particularly over the higher latitude regions. Confidence is fairly high
that the disturbance will intersect with the Earth.
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 04 - 05 Apr (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 04 - 06 Apr
POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MINOR
POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY: MINOR
POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM: APPROX 36 TO 48 HOURS
DURATION OF MAIN BELT OF ACTIVITY: APPROX 18 TO 24 HOURS
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
SEVERE STORM : 5 % LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
MAJOR STORM : 15 % MIDDLE LATITUDES : MINOR
MINOR STORM : 40 % HIGH LATITUDES : STRONG MINOR
ACTIVE OR LESS : 40 % POLAR LATITUDES : STRONG MINOR
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 40% ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MINOR
ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 30
---- ---------------
POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: MODERATE
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: MINOR
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: FAIR TO OCCASSIONALLY POOR
(WITH BRIEF VERY POOR PERIODS)
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION: MODERATE
POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION: STRONG MINOR
EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS: POOR TO OCCAS. VERY POOR
------
>From the aurora watch bulletin:
------
An Earth-crossing solar coronal mass ejection related to a recent minor
solar flare has been confirmed by recent spacecraft observations of the Sun.
The disturbance is expected to reach the Earth and intensify levels of
auroral activity on 04 and 05 April. Periods of moderate activity are
expected to accompany this disturbance which should provide periods of
visible activity over many middle latitude dark-sky sites. The favorable
phase of the moon (new-new phase) will increase the likelihood of observing
activity from the middle latitudes. This is not expected to be an intense
event, although sporadic substorming could produce bursts of fairly strong
activity, particularly for upper-middle latitude regions. Activity should
begin subsiding later on 05 April and 06 April.
-----
from spacecraft warning bulletin:
-------
Spacecraft observations of the Sun have confirmed the existence of a
solar flare-related coronal mass ejection disturbance that is currently
in-transit to the Earth. Impact with the Earth is expected on 04 April (or
at the earliest, late on 03 April). This disturbance is not expected to be
very intense, but it should elevate levels of geomagnetic activity
sufficiently to produce potential surface charging related anomalies for
geosynchronous spacecraft, particularly during the local midnight to sunrise
satellite sectors. Similar charging anomalies may be observed on
lower-altitude satellites with inclinations in excess of approximately 45 to
50 degrees. Subsequent anomalies may result in electrical upsets. These
conditions could persist through most of 05 April. Improvements are expected
on 06 April as this disturbance passes and subsides.
Kent Torell torell@sicom.com 602-607-4852
SICOM 7585 E. Redfield, #202 Scottsdale, AZ 85260
AB7OA scQRPion 6,qrp-l 57,ARCI 9075 DM33xn 33.55 N 112.078 W
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