Propagation Forecast

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From: Swanson, Glenn, KB1GW (gswanson@arrl.org)
Date: Thu Mar 27 1997 - 10:57:00 EST


Thought the group might find this of interest:

From: http://www.nol.net/~ids/prop.html

Propagation Forecast for March 1997

     AD5Q - Houston, Texas

Though it is still officially winter, the equinox approaches and brings
daylight to northern regions that have been difficult to traverse in recent
months. With the low solar flux numbers it is too soon to expect reliable
night path conditions on 20, but we will see a steady improve-ment over the
next few
months.

It is still low band season, and our best long haul DX band for night path
propagation is still 40. Nighttime MUF's are on the increase, bringing
improved conditions to Europe in the evening hours.

The grey line is currently aligned almost due north, making contacts across
polar regions easier than they would be. These paths are never easy on the
low bands, but now is the time to try them.

DX signals on the low bands will remain good for another month or so, but
noise levels will soon be an additional factor. At equinox time, noise
levels in both hemispheres are low enough to bring out activity from both
sides of the equator. This is the time for lowband work into Australia, the
Pacific,
South America and southern Africa.

On the high bands, little activity is expected on 10 or 15 and the best
bands will be 20 & 17. Our best opportunities on 20 are still in the morning
after sunrise and in the afternoon both before and
after sunset. The morning brings a pipeline to Europe, Russia and the Middle
East, while the dusk opening is the best time for Asia. There will be times
when the polar paths won't open very well at sunset, but it is a good idea
to check the southern path for Antarctic openings and possible long path to
the Orient. African contacts can be made on 20 at anytime in the Afternoon,
while the Pacific is usually the last path to close in the evening.
Antarctica can also come through late in the evening.

Over the coming months, look for expanded 20 Meter opportunities after dark.
The polar paths will be opening up better, nighttime MUF's will continue to
rise, and DX activity will move to this band as the noise levels increase on
40. Daypath conditions will improve, but after a peak of a couple hours to
Europe in the morning conditions are marginal for the rest of the day. The
daypath to Europe will often be more optimum on 17.

The 30 Meter band is another one that mostly closes up at night in the
winter. This will be the first band to open up for long haul evening DXing
this spring. Polar paths are not difficult on this band when it is open, and
islands in the Indian Ocean are very accessible.

                    ad5q@kb5tes.#setx.tx.usa.na or ids@nol.net

                       Complete set of Articles is Available

This monthly series of articles began in February 1988, and therefore
chronicles the recent sunspot peak. Circumstances permitting, the series
will continue and ultimately conclude with 11 years of cycle documentation.
The forecasts can then be used in future solar cycles in any season, and at
any level of solar flux. The emphasis of this series is on the seasonal
variations in DX openings at prevailing flux levels, and not on forecasting
short term variations in solar statistics. We try to help you work the DX,
especially over the more difficult paths.

The complete set of articles will be available here. The archive file will
be updated monthly so it will always contain every article, including the
current month. The articles are usually written in the weekend following the
first Friday of the month and uploaded to packet, two internet reflectors
and a few land line BBS's in Houston.

====
73, KB1GW


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